The change of power in Syria, a major geopolitical player in the Middle East, sends waves of uncertainty across the region. With the deposition of dictator Bashar al-Assad after a devastating offensive by several rebel groups, the main of which is the Organization for the Liberation of the Levant (HTS, in its Arabic acronym), it is still unknown who will actually occupy power in the country. , whether temporarily or permanently; in a video released this Sunday, Prime Minister Mohamed Ghazi al-Jalali stated that he is willing to work with the insurgents to stabilize the country. Even so, based on all the alliances built by Syria during the Assad regime, it is possible to assess who are the main beneficiaries and harmed by the end of his dictatorship.
Syrian rebel in the city of Homs celebrates the end of Bashar al-Assad's dictatorship. (Photo: Bilal al-Hammoud/EFE/EPA)
Uncertain: The Syrians themselves
Syrians took to the streets to celebrate the end of the Assad dictatorship, a regime characterized by human rights violations, repression of freedoms, massacres and even the use of chemical weapons against its own population. However, the possible scenarios for a post-Assad Syria are as diverse as possible: in the most benign of them, the victorious forces of the civil war reach an agreement and allow the population to decide the country's fate; at its worst, civil war continues, with various groups trying to take the deposed dictator's place.
Those who have the most to fear at the moment are the Alawites, members of a branch of Islam that corresponds to just 12% of the population, but to which Assad belonged and who occupied a large part of the positions in the government, and who could quickly become the target of a reckoning. The Kurds, who gained some autonomy during the civil war, will also have reason to worry if the new Syrian government is strongly influenced by Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's Turkey, which helped the rebels and which strongly represses the Kurds within their country. Other minorities, such as Christians and Druze, are waiting to see whether HTS will maintain the tolerance demonstrated in Idlib, a region that has been in its power for the longest time, or whether it will show its strength if it definitively assumes power in Syria – the group is considered a terrorist organization by the United States and the UN.
Loser: Russia
Vladimir Putin, the most powerful of the deposed dictator's allies, saved Assad's skin in 2015, but was no longer helping his Syrian colleague as he was more committed to his own war, which began in 2022 with the invasion of Ukraine. Russia's recent participation has been limited to a few airstrikes in the north of the country to try to contain the rebel offensive; on Friday, the 6th, the Russian embassy had sent a warning to its citizens to leave Syria as soon as possible. Putin has a vital interest in Syria: the only Russian naval base outside the territory of the former Soviet Union is located in Tartus, on the coast of the Mediterranean Sea, obviating the need for Russian ships to cross the Black Sea and the controlled Bosporus and Dardanelles straits. by Turkey (which is part of NATO). The future of relations between Syria and Russia is still uncertain: shortly before Assad's fall, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov referred to the rebels as “terrorists” whose victory would be “inadmissible”; Now, he will try to convince the new government that it was no longer so committed to protecting the former dictator, but sheltering him on Russian soil should not make Putin gain points with the future Syrian government.
Loser: Iran
Iranian Shiite militias joined the Russians in 2015 to prevent a rebel victory, and the two countries have further strengthened their ties since then, to the point where they are the only two states to be part of the so-called Axis of Resistance, in opposition to Israel and the West – the other members are Hezbollah, Hamas and the Yemeni Houthis. Even so, in the final moments of the rebel offensive, Iran also did not commit to saving Assad, preferring to withdraw its people from Damascus. With Hamas and Hezbollah already greatly weakened by Israeli actions, the fall of Assad further reduces Iranian influence in the Middle East. According to Danny Citrinowicz, a member of a working group on Iran at the Atlantic Council, the end of the Assad regime will force Iran to review its strategy of confronting Israel and the West, which could even lead to an acceleration of its nuclear program. , either to actually obtain a bomb, or as a means of bringing Western powers to the negotiating table.
Loser: Hezbollah
The terrorist group that torments Israel in the north had already lost numerous of its leaders in Israeli surgical strikes in the Jewish State's recent counteroffensive. Throughout the Syrian civil war, Hezbollah has sent fighters to fight alongside the Syrian army. But, without Assad, the group loses an important intermediary in obtaining Iranian support and will become even more vulnerable to Israeli attacks.
Winner: Israel
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu celebrated the fall of Assad and claimed part of the responsibility for having weakened the former Syrian dictator's allies, thus allowing the rebels to finally achieve the success that had eluded them on previous occasions. However, as evident as the Israeli gain is with the fall of an ally of Iran and Hezbollah, two of Israel's greatest enemies, the uncertainty about what will be done in Syria without Assad does not allow for more definitive conclusions. A possible “side effect” of the fall of Assad and the weakening of Hezbollah, according to the Politico website, is the “normalization” of the situation in Lebanon, which is certainly in Israeli interests.
Winner: Türkiye
While Israel wants credit for weakening Assad's allies, Turkish autocrat Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has supported the rebels since the early stages of the civil war, as part of a broader geopolitical conflict in which Turkey is vying for influence with Iran. From this angle, any change that diminishes the international power of the ayatollahs' regime benefits Erdoğan. A new government that is more hostile to the Syrian Kurds will also weaken the Kurds in Türkiye, which is also in Erdoğan's interest.
Possible winners: United States
As much as the fall of Iran's ally is automatically beneficial to the United States, the country will have to act quickly if it doesn't want the new Syrian government to end up in another sphere of influence that is also hostile to the United States, says Joze Pelayo, associate director of the Atlantic Council's Middle East Security Initiative. For Pelayo, the United States needs to take advantage of the rejection of Iran and Russia, Assad's supporters, to make itself available to the transitional government in organizing clean elections, and strive to make Syria an element of stability in the Middle East, which will be beneficial to Israel. However, shortly after Assad's fall, President-elect Donald Trump wrote on his social media profiles that the US should not get involved in the Syrian chaos. “This is not our war,” he said, casting doubt on the North American ability to take advantage of the opportunity.
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